By Larry Keane
As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall
Since COVID-era uncertainty began, millions of Americans bought firearms, many for the first time. Critics insisted that more guns in private hands would inevitably mean more violent crime and more criminal misuse of firearms — a national slide into a modern “Wild West.” The most recent national and city-level data don’t support that claim. Even as lawful gun ownership expanded dramatically, violent crime, homicide and several firearm-involved crimes have trended downward in recent years.
This is not a claim that guns “cause” crime to fall. Crime is driven by offender behavior, enforcement, prosecution and local conditions. But it is a direct rebuttal to the overly simplistic gun control talking point that increases in lawful gun ownership will absolutely increase murder and firearm violence.
Record Increase in Lawful Ownership Since COVID
The United States added tens of millions of first-time gun owners since 2020. NSSF estimates about 26.2 million Americans bought their first firearm between 2020 through the end of 2024, including an estimated 8.4 million first-time buyers in 2020 alone. NSSF-adjusted verification background checks tied to retail sales suggest Americans purchased roughly 21.1 million firearms in 2020 and about 14.6 million in 2025.
NSSF reports those adjusted checks remained above one million per month for years, totaling roughly 86 million since July 2019. At the same time, the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) operations reporting shows 2020 produced 39,695,315 unadjusted NICS background checks, the highest year in the history of the system.
If “more guns equals more murders” were a dependable rule, this is the period when the trend should be unmistakable and persistent. Except it isn’t.
What the FBI Reports for 2024
The FBI’s nationwide estimates show broad declines. In its 2024 summary report, the FBI estimates violent crime fell 4.5 percent from 2023 to 2024, and murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell 14.9 percent.
For a debate often framed around “gun violence,” the criminal misuse of firearms trends matter. The FBI reports aggravated assaults involving a firearm decreased 8.6 percent from 2023 to 2024, dropping from 289,938 reported offenses to 264,988. The estimated murder rate shown in the FBI report fell to 5.0 per 100,000 people in 2024, down from 5.9 in 2023 and below the pandemic-era peak.
The Pandemic Spike Was Real — and It Didn’t Become a ‘New Normal’
Homicides rose sharply during the early pandemic period, and the data should be acknowledged honestly. The FBI reported murder and nonnegligent manslaughter increased 29.4 percent from 2019 to 2020. But the claim at issue is not whether violence spiked in 2020, it is whether rising lawful gun ownership necessarily drives murders upward over time.
Recent firearm-homicide trends squash that assumption. Pew Research Center’s analysis of CDC mortality data reports gun murders fell from a record 20,958 in 2021 to 17,927 in 2023, and the gun murder rate declined from 6.7 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 5.6 in 2023.
In plain terms, the U.S. experienced an enormous increase in lawful gun ownership after 2020, yet firearm homicide has moved down significantly from its pandemic peak.
City-Level Data Tell the Same Story
City reporting also points to a downward trend in lethal violence. The Council on Criminal Justice’s Year-End 2024 update found homicides in its study cities were 16 percent lower in 2024 than in 2023, representing 631 fewer homicides. The same report recorded 15 percent fewer “gun assaults” in 2024 than in 2023, alongside declines in robbery and other offenses.
More current, real-time indicators suggest 2025 continued that progress. Crime analyst Jeff Asher, using Real Time Crime Index data, said murders fell nearly 20 percent nationwide from 2024 to 2025, after a 13 percent decline the previous year. The same analysis cited broad declines in robberies, property crime and aggravated assaults, and reported Chicago saw about 30 percent fewer homicides than in 2024.
When multiple independent sources show multi-year, double-digit homicide declines across many jurisdictions, the idea that lawful gun ownership necessarily drives the country toward higher murder rates becomes hard to defend.
Bruen and the Crime Wave That Never Materialized
After the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 Bruen decision, gun-control advocates and politicians warned that expanding lawful carry would trigger more shootings and murders. Yet, using Real Time Crime Index tools, the 12-month running average of violent crime fell 14 percent from June 2022 through October 2025, while murders fell 39 percent over the same period. That analysis also notes the index draws from a sample of 570 agencies and reports its proportional mix tracks within about 2 percent of FBI UCR proportions. Although some states tried to circumvent the imagined future effects of the Bruen decision, a federal appellate court recently struck down California’s ban on openly carrying firearms in most parts of the state, ruling California’s restrictions on open carry in counties with more than 200,000 residents—covering about 95 percent of the state’s population—ran afoul of the Bruen decision. In response, Gov. Gavin Newsom predictably blasted the decision as “reckless” and warned it could “return California to the days of the Wild West.”
That’s not to say this single court decision “caused” crime to fall, just that the predicted surge in murders did not occur, even as lawful carry expanded. What was pitched as a return to “Wild West” justice in America turned out to be nothing more than a peaceful prairie, complete with homesteaders armed to defend themselves if necessary.
What Policymakers Should Learn
With experts touting one of the largest one-year drops in homicides ever recorded in 2025, its clear: America can see increases in lawful gun ownership without automatically seeing increases in violent crime or firearm murders. This fact should shape the policy debate more than a premature assumption of law-abiding gun owners’ future actions.
If the objective is fewer criminal shootings and fewer homicides, the most effective levers are the ones tied to criminal behavior: identifying repeat violent offenders, disrupting illegal gun trafficking, prosecuting prohibited possessors and restoring the certainty that serious violence brings serious consequences.
The predictable “Wild West” blood-in-the-streets claim may be rhetorically useful for gun control advocates to advance their antigun political agenda, but it isn’t supported by the current crime data.
Larry Keane is Senior Vice President of Government and Public Affairs and General Counsel for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the firearms industry trade association.
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22 Comments
The timing of this spike in ownership and the drop in crime rates is worth deeper analysis. Many factors play into violent crime trends.
I’m skeptical. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. There’s no clear evidence that gun ownership directly affects murder rates.
Fair point. But it does challenge the simplistic ‘more guns, more crime’ argument.
It’s not just about guns—community involvement, education, and economic opportunities all play a role in reducing crime.
While crime rates are down, I’m concerned about the potential for more accidental shootings as first-time owners increase.
The data is interesting, but I’d like to see more nuanced analysis on how different regions are affected.
The correlation is interesting, but I’d like to see more studies on the impact of enforcement and local conditions.
Agreed. Crime is a complex issue, and guns are just one small part.
Gun ownership is a personal choice, but the impact on crime rates is far from straightforward.
While the numbers are positive, it’s important to remember that access to firearms still comes with risks. Education and responsibility can’t be overlooked.
The article makes a strong point, but it’s important to keep in mind that crime trends are influenced by many factors.
More guns, less crime? I’ll believe it when I see long-term trends beyond just these years.
This doesn’t mean we should stop advocating for responsible gun laws. Safety should always be a priority.
This doesn’t surprise me. Laws abiding citizens own guns to protect themselves, not to commit crimes.
Interesting to see the data contradict the narrative that more guns equal more crime. Like any tool, it’s about how it’s used.
Still, more enforcement and prosecution are key to keeping crime rates down.
Exactly. It’s the people behind the guns, not the guns themselves, that matter most.
The article provides some good food for thought, but I’m not sure it’s enough to shift the gun control debate.
The article highlights a key point: crime is driven by behavior, not just tools. Gun control advocates often miss this.
It’s encouraging to see crime rates falling, but I worry about the long-term effects of wider gun ownership.
This data could help inform public policy, but it won’t change minds that think guns are inherently the problem.
Unfortunately, people often see what they want to see in the data.