Prediction Market Shows Overwhelming Favorite for Idaho State Gun – Bearing Arms

Designating an official state gun has virtually no impact on anything other than bragging rights for a gun company, but it is a fun way to goose turnout at the polls in a Second Amendment-friendly state. 

Voters in Idaho will have the opportunity to pick from six different firearms; the Winchester Model 1894, the Winchester Model 1873, the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver, the M1 Garand, the Colt M1911, and the Remington Model 700. 

I think it’s pretty silly that the Colt AR-15 isn’t on the list, and I would have swapped out the Winchester 1894 for the modern sporting rifle, but the Idaho legislature didn’t consult me on my choices before it unanimously approved putting the question to voters. 

As for the six options on the list, the prediction market Polymarket says its users have a clear favorite. 

BREAKING: Idaho voters projected to choose the Winchester Model 1873 as their official state gun. 63% chance. https://t.co/2QLmoFkCjc

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 3, 2026

That’s a perfectly reasonable choice. The Winchester Model 1873 is called “The Gun That Won the West” for legitimate reasons. It was the rifle of ranchers, settlers, hunters, and frontiersmen who helped transform the American West, including Idaho, from a harsh and remote frontier into the communities we know today. 

Rugged, reliable, and chambered for the same cartridges used in popular revolvers of the day, the Winchester ’73 was a practical tool for people whose livelihoods and lives depended on a firearm. The Winchester 1873 represents something distinctly American: the armed citizen who helped build the West. 

If I lived in Idaho, though, I’d be tempted to cast my vote for the 1911. It served America’s armed forces through two world wars, Korea, Vietnam, and beyond. The combination of reliability, stopping power, and enduring design has made it one of the most influential handguns ever produced. Though it’s now well over 100 years old, it remains a favorite of competitive shooters, collectors, and those who want a handgun for personal protection.

Arguably, though, the Winchester 1873 has more relevance to Idaho’s history than the 1911 or M1 Garand (which is another sentimental favorite of mine). That’s also the case for the 1873 Colt “Peacemaker,” which has become an enduring symbol of our American independence and self-reliance. 

The nice thing about this particular election is that there really isn’t a bad choice on the ballot. The Remington 700 has put venison in millions of freezers and introduced generations of Americans to the joys of hunting and shooting. The Winchester 1894 has its own storied place in American history, since it was the first commercially produced lever-action rifle built with smokeless powder in mind. 

I appreciate Idaho lawmakers letting voters have some fun with their ballots. There are plenty of serious issues at stake in today’s elections, but there’s something refreshing about a ballot question that invites (hopefully) friendly debate among gun owners instead of another political fight over which firearms politicians should prohibit.

Whatever the outcome, maybe the legislature can take up another important question in 2028: which caliber should be Idaho’s official state cartridge?

Editor’s Note: President Trump and Republicans across the country are doing everything they can to protect our Second Amendment rights and right to self-defense.

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