Ukraine Resumes Oil Refinery Strikes as Trump’s Russia Diesel Deal Faces Test

Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries Oct. 15, renewing pressure on the production capacity behind President Donald Trump’s diesel agreement with Moscow as international energy officials warned that reopening Russian exports would offer limited relief.

A drone attack reportedly started a fire at Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery, which supplies Moscow and accounts for nearly 5% of Russian refining throughput. Regional authorities said damage was being assessed.

Trump had announced an energy ceasefire Oct. 11, but neither side confirmed a formal agreement. The renewed attacks complicate his effort to secure Russian fuel while encouraging peace negotiations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had paused energy strikes for three days but resumed them because Russia continued attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

On Oct. 9, Trump announced Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons to American and global markets, followed by 500,000 in November and 1 million shortly afterward.

On Oct. 14, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said contracts were being finalized, including direct U.S. deliveries, and that exports would generate Russian tax revenue.

How Russia’s Refineries Became a Battlefield

Russia had been the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, behind the United States, before restricting sales this summer. Ukrainian refinery attacks disrupted supplies, and Moscow extended its producer export ban through October.

Yet Novak said Oct. 2 that the domestic diesel market was sufficiently supplied and that surplus production could justify reopening exports.

The campaign builds on earlier refinery strikes that left some Russian regions rationing gasoline in 2025. Analysts then cautioned that civilian shortages did not automatically mean Russian troops were running out: Russia produced a diesel surplus, and its military largely used that fuel.

Ukraine has targeted distillation equipment that separates crude oil into usable products. Damage can force repairs before refineries resume operations, with foreign replacement parts potentially difficult to obtain under sanctions.

Having crude oil does not guarantee having enough finished fuel.

Emergency Reserves and a Financial Lifeline

Trump says the deal will lower costs for farmers, truckers and other Americans. Diesel prices had risen about 70% since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began this year, reaching an average of $6.28 a gallon on Oct. 8.

The initial Russian pledge equals roughly 2.25 million barrels, less than one day’s consumption by the U.S. transportation sector alone. That comparison illustrates the limited immediate volume, though the agreement also envisions subsequent shipments.

The International Energy Agency’s members agreed Oct. 15 to accelerate previously pledged emergency stock releases, including 20 million-plus barrels of diesel as soon as possible.

Its Oct. 14 market assessment warned that easing Russian export restrictions was unlikely to materially change the global supply balance because operational refinery capacity remained constrained. Diesel markets could remain tight well into 2027.

Administration envoys have another rationale: Offering Moscow business opportunities could help restart peace negotiations. Three people familiar with an Oct. 9 meeting told Reuters that U.S. officials pitched the deal to Ukraine as a way to draw Russia back to talks. Ukrainian participants were skeptical.

On Oct. 13, 12 senators—evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats—urged Trump to rescind the agreement. They argued the price benefit would be negligible while additional revenue would help finance Russia’s war.

What US Law Actually Requires

Congress banned Russian energy imports in 2022, including diesel. The U.S. Treasury, nevertheless, issued General License 135 on Oct. 9, authorizing Russian diesel transactions, including U.S. imports, through April 7, 2027.

This creates a legal contradiction: The license lifts restrictions imposed under executive sanctions regulations, but it does not repeal Congress’ statutory ban or establish that the administration satisfied the law’s conditions for ending it.

Credit: AP Photo/Dan Bashakov

To terminate that prohibition, the president must certify that Russia has reached a withdrawal and cessation-of-hostilities agreement accepted by Ukraine, poses no immediate military aggression threat to NATO members and recognizes Ukrainians’ right to choose their government. The law requires advance congressional consultation and a 90-day review period.

The law provides no general national security waiver allowing the president to bypass those requirements. Although it gives the administration room to implement the ban, that authority does not expressly permit Treasury to authorize imports without meeting the conditions Congress imposed.

A bipartisan group of senators said Oct. 11 that the administration had failed to consult Congress or submit the explanation required by law.

Vice President JD Vance announced Oct. 13 that the administration would use the Defense Production Act to expand a Texas refinery, seeking additional commercial and military-specification fuel.

Funding and expansion size remained undisclosed; refinery expansions typically take months, or even years.

Refinery attacks also require individual legal assessments. Under the military objective test, a facility must contribute effectively to military action, and its destruction must offer a definite military advantage.

Even then, anticipated civilian harm cannot be excessive. Fuel price concerns do not replace those legal requirements.